India has a much bigger military and it is better equipped than Pakistan so conventional warfare can only go one way.
Pakistan figured this out after 1971 so they invested a lot into missile technology and their Nukes and conventional missiles are either on par or (better) then India.
It will be foolish for India to try to enter Pakistani space for a limited incursion because it won’t remain limited for too long, unless America actively intervenes and let India do whatever they want and bind Pakistan down.
Military intervention for India is not an option.
India has been to successfully paint Pakistan as sponsor of Terrorism. By invading Pakistan (or even a limited action across LOC), two things happen:
- India becomes the (active) Aggressor
- Kashmir becomes International with admission that India has a problem it cannot solve
Both go against Indian Foreign policy for the last 60 years.
Balkanisation (of Pakistan) Option:
There has been a rethink in India that attacking Pakistan, defeating its military is a far worse option because Pakistan will simply become a breeding ground for insurgency without a stable Government. India, America or Israel don’t have the appetite or the resources to contain an ideologically driven Muslim population.
China has invested over $43 Billion into Pakistan and will go out of its way to VETO anything which sanctions Pakistan.
America needs India, in fact they both need each other. There is a possibility that American sanctions may be applied to Pakistan due to Indian Pressure.
The problem with America is that it needs Pakistan to stabilise Afghanistan and keep things relatively stable. Pakistan knows this.
It’s an election year and Obama most certainly doesn’t want Afghanistan to get worse and Pakistani (ISI) can most certainly make that happen and very quickly.
War will hurt India more and its economy. Pakistan is a failed state with not much going for it and not much to lose.
BJP and its Rhetoric:
BJP is Hindutva, they softened their rhetoric and came to power on the back of economy and investment. But the bottom line is Muslim hatred they have boxed themselves into a cordon where the massively hysterical Indian Media won’t let this rest until something is done.
- BJP know that military intervention is not an option.
- Doing nothing is also not an option.
There are elections coming up in Punjab and other states and doing nothing will damage the BJP brand.
Don’t be surprised if lunatic Hindutva brigade does decide to attack because reason and logic has taken a backseat. If you monitor Indian Media there are some seriously crazy anchors yelling at the top of their voice and inciting an attack on Pakistan.
What is the Solution (for India)?
The issue of Kashmir needs to be resolved. India CANNOT follow the UN guidelines and offer Kashmiri people a voice over their future because India has native insurgencies and separatist movements in other states and this will set the precedence for others.
The idea of Pakistan was that minority Muslims will not be treated well by majority Hindus. Pakistani Muslims continue to feed off Babri Masjid, Godhra, Gujarat and other riots. India can suck the oxygen out of the equation by treating Muslims better. All of a sudden the idea of Pakistan dies (its own death).
Secularism (for India)?
India has NEVER been a religious country even under Muslim rule. It has always been Secular. The only way for India to survive is to respect the wishes of all its inhabitants.
Even under Aurangzeb, India was never a "Taliban Nation". Muslims had rights (and it had Muslim rule), but other religions were left alone to do their rituals. 800+ year of Muslim rule in India NEVER HAD Government Dawah or enforcement of Shariah precepts. Music, entertainment was openly practised, the pious preached and stayed away but (Muslim) India was NEVER a Taliban state!
You CANNOT run India unless you give minorities their rights. If you read the works of Indian Ulama there have been some very complex debates and discussions about rights of Hindus. Some (Muslims) even tried to classify Hindus as Ahlul-Kitaab!
(Rightly or wrongly) India has a history of Muslim (rulers) setting aside funds to repair Hindu temples. This was out of a policy of appeasement and pragmatism. Indian Government genuinely needs to look at how Babur and others rules India and take a leaf out of their book.
(Haters) of Islam highlight the oppression of (minorities) and (practising) Muslims try to paint India as some sort of Shariah state, it was neither. The Sultans (and Mughals) enjoyed their rule and out of pragmatism largely left the population to sort out their own religious practises. Read Baburnama and even from the beginning its clear that these Muslim rulers understood the pragmatic way of dealing with India and its population.
India will eventually breakup if it tilts to the hard-right (Hindutva). Secularism is the need for India to territorially survive.
Secularism on the other hand CANNOT survive in Pakistan because majority of the population lives and breathes Islam. The more right-wing Pakistan (becomes) the more problems it causes for India.
India is neither Pakistan nor Afghanistan, everybody needs to get that!
What is the Solution (for Pakistan)?
As long India remains to be suspicious against its own (Muslim) population, represses Kashmir and questions the legitimacy of Pakistan.
Pakistan will have no choice but to continue to try to plan for Indian aggression. Pakistan neither has the resources nor the population to match India so they will look for every advantage under the sun from supporting Khalistan to Naxal to tactical nuclear weapons. The issue has nothing to do with Islam, its basic survival.
How do you survive against someone bigger then you? You do whatever it takes!