Coronavirus

11MAR2020: Coronavirus confirmed as pandemic by World Health Organization

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51839944

www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/11/21175061/who-declare...

WHO has been assessing this outbreak around the clock and we’re deeply concerned both by the alarming levels of spread and severity and the alarming levels of inaction. We have therefore made the assessment that Covid-19 can be characterized by “pandemic,” Tedros said, going on to argue that the designation did not mean the situation was hopeless: “All countries can still change the course of this pandemic.”

What is a pandemic?

To define a pandemic, we need to first define a few other terms.

First, when a disease infects a lot of people in one area in a short period of time, that’s an outbreak. For example, the US has experienced a series of measles outbreaks over the past few years, with 2019 the worst year for measles since 1992.

The measles outbreaks were quite different from a global public health perspective than the coronavirus outbreak. Measles was introduced by travelers from other countries and spread in populations with low vaccination rates, instead of jumping from animals. Since there is a vaccine, and since some people have had exposure and immunity, the measles outbreaks — while a serious public health crisis — didn’t present a risk on the scale of the coronavirus outbreak.

The novel coronavirus crisis began with an outbreak of 41 identified cases in Wuhan, China, in December that began spreading rapidly in January.

That brings us to a term you might have seen thrown around: epidemic. The World Health Organization defines an epidemic as “the occurrence in a community or region of cases of an illness ... clearly in excess of normal expectancy.” The CDC defines it as “an increase, often sudden, in the number of cases of a disease above what is normally expected” in a region. You may have heard the term used to refer to the “opioid epidemic,” or other instances of a long-existing harm becoming rapidly more deadly or more widespread.

When it comes to defining a pandemic, things get a little more complicated.

According to A Dictionary of Epidemiology, the standard reference for epidemiologists, a pandemic is “an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people.”

A “pandemic” disease sounds much scarier than a mere “outbreak.” But it’s important to remember that “pandemic” refers to how many parts of the world are dealing with an elevated rate of the disease — and, in theory, says nothing about how serious the disease is.

In 2009, the H1N1 influenza was deemed a pandemic. One in five people worldwide caught the disease. But it was not very deadly, with an overall mortality rate estimated at 0.02 percent, so the societal disruption was limited and the loss of lives, while tragic, didn’t overwhelm medical systems.

Past coronaviruses have been dangerous, but they have not gone pandemic around the globe. The 2002-’03 SARS outbreak — primarily in China and Hong Kong, though with cases around the world — had about a 10 percent mortality rate. But as the disease was swiftly contained, it was never a pandemic, and no cases have been reported anywhere in the world since 2004.

Similarly, the even deadlier MERS coronavirus — with an approximately 35 percent mortality rate — was not very contagious and circulated only slowly. MERS originated in Saudi Arabia, and nearly all transmission has been there, though a traveler from the Middle East spurred a 2015 outbreak in South Korea. It has not been entirely eliminated, but it has never been a pandemic.

Sometimes, though, diseases have both a high mortality rate and enough transmissibility to become a pandemic. That’s the worst-case scenario for public health. The best example is the 1918-’19 influenza pandemic, which — aided by the troop movements of World War I — travelled all around the world and struck an estimated 500 million people.

At the time, that represented 25 percent of the population of the world. There are varying estimates for its lethality, but it was likely lower than that of SARS or MERS and may even have been as low as a few percentage points. That’s still high enough to have had a devastating effect on society. The death toll is estimated to have been 40 million to 50 million, though some estimates are higher.

When public health experts talk about their fear of another pandemic, they have in mind the possibility of something like the 1918-’19 influenza. That said, it’s worth noting that even a “mild” pandemic like H1N1 in 2009 is estimated to have caused up to 575,000 deaths, because when a disease infects the whole world the death toll will be very high even if the disease is fairly mild.

Why it matters that something is called a pandemic

So if the distinction between a pandemic and an epidemic isn’t how severe they are or how scared we should be, what is the distinction? Why bother categorizing diseases by how many countries are affected?

One answer is that pandemics must be battled, at the international level, significantly differently than epidemics.

When one region of the world experiences an epidemic, the rest of the world is on the sidelines. They may shut their borders to the affected region, or send help, or both. They may start making preparations in case the disease affects their own country. When coronavirus broke out in Wuhan, many of China’s neighbors sent masks. In a now-retracted Lancet paper, health workers in Wuhan asked if they’d consider sending volunteer nurses and doctors, too.

When there’s a pandemic, there are essentially no sidelines. To some extent, it no longer makes as much sense for countries to shut their borders against the affected countries, as the disease is present everywhere.

Public health officials might recommend shifting to social distancing measures — which reduce spread within a country — instead of screening efforts that try to keep the disease out of the country at all. Countries still must share medical knowledge and expertise with one another, but directing supplies to affected areas is more complicated when affected areas are all over the globe. A world fighting a pandemic is not focused on containment to a distant elsewhere but on harm-reduction at home.

COVID19-UYGHUR-PUNISHMENT OF ALLAH THEORY

1. Uyghurs are being persecuted in Xinjiang and may Allah Ta'ala assist them and bring safety, security and peace to them (Ameen)
2. COVID-19 is medically proven by multiple sources to have originated in WUHAN

WUHAN is nearly 3000 Kilometres from Xinjiang, a simple lookup on Google Map would have saved a lot of time!

What is Herd immunity?

In the UK, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases keeps on steadily ticking upwards. As of March 12 it had 590 confirmed infections – a 134 case increase on the previous day. Up until now the government’s strategy has been simple: first try and contain the outbreak and then delay the spread, evening out the pressure on the NHS.

But now people involved in the government’s coronavirus response appear to be mooting a new strategy: herd immunity. On March 11, David Halpern – chief executive of the government-owned Behavioural Insights Team and a member of the the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies – spoke to BBC Newsoutlining an approach that depended on shielding vulnerable people until enough of the UK population had been infected with Covid-19 that acquired immunity stopped its spread altogether.

On the ITV website, Robert Peston referred to the same idea, writing that the strategy of the British government “is to allow the virus to pass through the entire population so that we acquire herd immunity”. So how does the concept work? People can gain immunity to diseases after being exposed to them, and once enough people are immune to a disease – either through exposure or vaccines – it will stop circulating within a population. That's herd immunity.

(Unable to post source due to faces in the link) 

From my Microbiology lessons (decades ago) :P

This is a good theoretical plan but requires serious co-ordination among Public Health officials and on the ground teams and if you bungle the coordination you will end up with a disaster at your hands. The British Public Health system is pretty good, coordinated and ready.

The Americans on the other hand cannot organise Qiyamul-Layl in a Salafi Mosque and their Public Health system is in tatters. I seriously believe that Americans will be hit very hard with Covid-19.