15JAN2020: Orya Maqbool Jan Analysis of Nuclear War
Very good analsysis but some additions/explanations in English
Since the 1960s there has been a fascination from American/European citizens to migrate to New Zealand. It has been thought by (Right Wing Christian Fundamentalists) that New Zealand is probably the best place to survive a Nuclear war. Orya Maqbool Jan Saheb did a good job in introducing these concepts to Pakistani people.
Threats of Nuclear War:
A country needs to have Nuclear weapons and the ability to deliver them (even in a crude unguided manner) and also believe that the other side will not retaliate OR the first strike will cripple the ability of the other side to retaliate. The clear example is Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the Americans first knocked out Japanese Airforce (so conventional responses was destroyed). American and Allied airforces bombed the hell out of Japan (without resistance) and then dropped the Atomic bomb BECAUSE Japan simply had no bomb and could not even respond conventionally in any meaningful way.
The counter example is the Cold war. Due to MAD (Mutually assured destruction) neither Americans nor the Soviets launched Nukes on each other. MAD would have meant that both would have annihilated each other to death!
Air based Nuclear weapons
Land based Nuclear weapons
Sea based Nuclear weapons
North Korea mostly has air/land strike capability so if US forces within hours take out all their launchers and cripple their air force then the Nuclear capability is gone!
- India/Pakistan: Both India and Pakistan have demonstrable "triple capability" thus due to MAD it is unlikely that there will be Nuclear war. India can bomb the hell out of Pakistan (highly unlikely but..) Pakistani subs can still launch Nukes, you get my point!
- Europe: Russians have no real war threat against them in Europe except expansion of NATO. At some point, Russians will try to create a buffer zone between them and NATO, will they launch Nuclear weapons...Probably not...
- North Korea/Japan: This is a higher risk then India/Pakistan simply because North Korea has nothing to lose by committing suicide (in American retaliation). Is Kim Jong-un crazy enough to do it? Probably not!
- Middle East: Israel is capable and crazy enough to Nuke Arabs. NONE of the Arab nations have any capability of retaliating. A Nuclear strike on a specific and targetted Arab region can be contained (in Israel's) estimation to prevent any damage/fallout from reaching Israel and this is the PRECISE & EXACT prediction in Ahadeeth, the exact words in the Hadeeth are disturbing
وَيْلٌ لِلْعَرَبِ مِنْ شَرٍّ قَدِ اقْتَرَبَ
Woe to Arabs because of evil which has drawn near
So what is "Wail" which is used in the Hadeeth?
Loading Qur'aan Verse
It is a valley in Hell so we can deduce:
- Extreme Heat
- Extreme Torment
- Extreme Punishment
Thus it does make sense to migrate to New Zealand because of its location