Thoughts on the new Islamic Caliphate

4th July 2014

Asslamo Allaikum Wa Rahmatullahi Wa Barakatuh,

Disclaimer:  I am a humble Servant of Allah (SWT) who lacks much in knowledge and experience so what is written here is simply my analysis which is liable to error and everyone reading this has the right to disagree.

Of all the wars and conflicts of the past few decades, the 2003 invasion of Iraq is the most puzzling to understand and explain. It made no sense.

  1. Neither Iraq nor Saddam Hussain had any involvement with the attacks on world trade centre

  2. Neither the Iraqi regime nor Saddam Hussain had any involvement with Islam let alone political or Jihadist Islam! The connection between Saddam and Al-Qaeda was laughed off by majority of the world

  3. Iraq had endured decades of economic sanctions and monitoring and it was barely sustaining itself let alone a threat to the west as advanced in the (now defunct) September dossier

So why attack Iraq? It made no sense until now...

World history tells us that whenever a people are invaded those who value their freedom rise up against the invasion and like clockwork this is what happened within a year or so after Iraq invasion. The people of Iraq rose up against the invasion of their country.  The most experienced Jihadees in the world were from Aghanistan (legacy of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the ensuing Jihad there) and Muslims flooded into Iraq to fight the invasion.

So far so predictable until a new name enters the pages of history...

Jamāʻat al-Tawḥīd wa-al-Jihād:

Ahmad Fadeel al-Nazal al-Khalayleh (Abu Musab al-Zarqawi) was a young man who arrived in Afghanistan around 1989 right at the end of Soviet Jihad. He saw little to no action and instead befriended Usama Bin Ladin.  There wasn’t a lot of fighting so he started writing and returned to his homeland (Jordan) in 1990 and was arrested shortly thereafter and imprisoned for many years. Zarqawi was an extreme Salafi and at some point formed a group called "Jamāʻat al-Tawḥīd wa-al-Jihād" . 

Al-Qaeda in Iraq:

Around 2004 (Abu Musab al-Zarqawi) made Ba'yah to Usama Bin Ladin and the name of the group changed to Tanẓīm Qāʻidat al-Jihād fī Bilād al-Rāfidayn, "The Organization of Jihad's Base in the Country of the Two Rivers" (TQJBR), more commonly translated as "Al-Qaeda in Iraq" (AQI). Under (Abu Musab al-Zarqawi) started an all assault on Iraq included suicide bombings in which many civilian (Shias) were killed and this began to strengthen the seeds of sectarianism in Iraq.

A letter was reported on BBC from Ayman Al-Zawahiri to and we can take two different positions on this letter:

  1. IF this letter is fake THEN we can clearly see invisible hands planting the idea that attacks on civilian population (majority Shia in and around Capital Baghdad) are occurring.

  2. IF this letter is real THEN we see Jihad against invaders being morphed into sectarian violence

Whether we take it as fake or real is Academic as it begins to show telltale signs of emerging Shia/Sunni conflict in Iraq.

Political sidelining of Sunnis in Iraq:

Americans setup Iraqi Transitional Government in 2005 and it was headed up several individuals with little to no Senior level representation from Sunnees of Iraq. The key individuals were:

  1. Jalal Talabani who is a Kurd who are a minority in Iraq made President
  2. (Dr) Ibrahim al-Jaafari who is a Shia made the Prime Minister
  3. Adil Abdul-Mahdi another very powerful (Iran backed Shia) made Vice-President
  4. Ghazi Mashal Ajil al-Yawer (Token Sunni)  who didn't live in Iraq but actually had to be brought into Iraq and made Vice-President, He was so infective and powerless  "al Baqara al dhahika (the laughing cow)".

Effectively, there was no Sunni representation in a country which has a 40% Sunni population and even higher if you count the Kurds (who are predominantly Sunni) but by clever distribution Kurds are counted as a separate group!

Like any other 3rd world country, assignments and appointments were based on nepotism and clear favouritism. Shias (and Kurds) rose while the Sunnees were sidelined under the pretext that most Sunnees were bathists (loyal to Saddam Hussain).

As “insurgency” against American invasion grew many civilian casualties were Shias who represented many aspects of the Government and resentment grew.

The transitional Government morphed into Iraqi National Assembly and then Iraqi Government but the demographics representing Iraq didn’t alter much. This time the leader on top was replaced by Nouri al-Maliki who still rules.

Almost a decade of Shia rule in Iraq and resulted in sharp rise in sectarianism, due to many common factors but primarily due to:

  1. Sunni sidelining and underrepresentation in jobs and economy.

  2. The Iraqi army (Saddam loyalties) were disbanded and a new force created to fight counterinsurgency and it overrepresented Shia, therefore just considering sheer numbers there was a high number of Shia casualties at the hands of (largely Sunni) resistance.

Shia/Sunni tensions fuelled by Syrian conflict:

There is no doubt and needs no further explanations that the brutal (mass murder and genocide) of Sunnees by heretical (Shia) Alawees further stoked sectarian tensions (worldwide).

Sunni Jihadi conflict in Syria:

There is no denying that there was/is significant tension between various (Sunni) Jihadi groups fighting the Alawi regime in Syria. Some reports go as far as to claim that majority of Jihadi casualties in Syria are due to inter-fighting and Allah (SWT) knows best!

Again analysis of contemporary media shows that various groups jockeying for power and control. We first see this in the Media when Islamic state of Iraq announce that Al-Nusra Front or Jabhat al-Nusra is part of them!

We see Al-Nusra Front or Jabhat al-Nusra instead pledging allegiance to Al-Qaeda and denying any merger with their Iraqi counterparts. Ayman Al-Zawahiri also denied this in a letter

Islamic state of Iraq rejects offers for reconciliation and orders publicly.

News of infighting, splits, attacks on each other continued to filter in the Media.

ISIS (ISIL) and their lightening success in Iraq:

In the 2 months we heard about this group crossing the border into Iraq and capturing large areas of land with blistering speed and success.  This group supposedly had a few thousand fighters and the population of Mosul itself is 1.8 million.

We are told that 2-3 divisions of Iraqi Army (30-40,000) Soldiers surrendered to less than 2000 insurgents.

It is not possible for a few thousand men to capture such large areas of land without local support. The only plausible explanation is Sunni disenchantment with (ruling) Shias which made them turn in great numbers to an incoming “Sunni” military force. 

Shia Jihad:

ISIS has a reputation for being brutal and their spectacular advance in Iraq and rule over areas straddling the Syria/Iraq border has clearly alarmed the Shias. As if by sheer coincidence the person who proclaiming to be Khilafah of Islam happens to be also called “Abu Bakr”.

Predictably we have had Shia declaration of Jihad, pronounced in Iraq but being responded to from as far away as India.


What I have stated is clearly obvious that this will do nothing but stoke serious tensions between Shias and Sunnees worldwide and it most certainly DOES NOT benefit Islam or Muslims in anyway whatsoever.

You can read and listen to people on the Internet who claim that this conflict is by design, orchestrated and “peace” will be delivered from the ashes of conflict. 

I don’t know if this is a precursor to coming of Mahdi (AS) as claimed by both Sunnees and Shias but it most certainly doesn’t benefit Sunni Islam at all. If ISIS (or whatever they are called now) are driven out the Sunni population will be subject to harassment, intimidation and targeted for decades.

I don’t know if these things were “designed” or just happened but its most certainly a deadly cocktail of ensuing violence and bloodshed. All of a sudden the world happens to forget about “Syrian Government and its atrocities” and we have a new “bogeyman” in town...Bashar Al-Asaad is no longer the “baddie” instead we have a new “baddie”!

To me this whole thing appears to be a HUGE VORTEX ready to suck in thousands of Shias and Sunnees!

Is this Khilafah legitimate or should you be doing Bay’ah to the new Ameer?

Allah (SWT) knows best about the future but this declaration of Khilafah has certainly excited many in the Sunni world so how legitimate is this claim?

To them I say that this group and its leadership isn’t even accepted by those who fought with them in Iraq (Al-Qaeda) or Syria (Al-Nusraet al), how in the world does it want allegiance from millions of Sunnees around the world who have neither heard of them nor come in any contact?

Achievements so far?

  1. Raising Shia/Sunni sectarianism to dangerous levels

  2. Further weakening and division of Muslims

  3. Confining “Syrian atrocities” to the background

  4. Coming of Iran from the cold

  5. Creating confusion, cheapening and mocking of Khilafah (worldwide)

The world was at least beginning to “empathise” with the uprising in Syria but with the advent of ISIS the threat of radicalisation has been placed on the forefront (once more) and for an average global citizen it has been declared that there is no such thing as “Good Muslim Resistance!”

What the future may hold?

All of these scenarios are equally unpalatable:

  1. Large areas under ISIS will be liberated and local population (Sunnees) will have to pay for their crimes

  2. Iraq (and by extension) Middle-East will be embroiled in sectarian conflict between (Irani backed) Shias and Sunnees for decades

  3. Israel will enter the conflict and its influence will extend to the heart of Iraq

  4. US will re-enter Iraq

Tags: islam
posted by Muadh_Khan on 4th July 2014 - 7 comments


Hasan wrote on 5 Jul 2014
Assalaamu 'Alaykum

Mashallah your analysis is a good combination of the chronicles in Iraq. Your rhetorical question regarding legitimacy of the Khilafah claimed by IS (former ISIL or ISIS) is also correct as blood feud between them and other rebel groups still continues. However I don't think most of your predictions will be correct (Allaah knows best).

1. Liberation of the areas held by IS is unlikely to happen RIGHT NOW because-

A. Ongoing dispute about the leadership of president Maliki- HUGE problem for Iraqi govt.,

B. Kurds have jumped on the bandwagon and are now pushing vigorously for independence- HUGE problem for Iraqi govt.,

C. Despite Maliki's appeals after appeals US has shown very little interest and we haven't heard of any major drone strike against IS yet- HUGE problem for Iraqi govt.,

D. Because of these unstable situations Shi'ites (Iraqi and Iranian) aren't launching any coordinated attack against Sunni rebels (however, according to media reports, they are secretly killing Sunni civilians).

Nevertheless, I do agree with you that Sunni civilians will have to pay for them if liberation really happens.

2. Sectarian conflict isn't nothing new in the middle east, but now Iranian Shi'ites have got a great opportunity to exhibit hostility openly because the west is on the way to resolve all issues against them.

3. Israel is showing no major interest in all of these conflicts except occasional bombings in Syria in response to astray mortar shells hitting their territory. They are busy in encroaching more Palestinian lands.

4. US, perhaps, has reached at the state which all former super powers have experienced- downfall. They've learnt A LOT from their invasions and this is why they are just using drones and intelligence services to assist the government forces of different countries to fight "terrorists".
Blogger's Reply:
W-Salam, Allah (SWT) knows best...
Not ISIS fan wrote on 6 Jul 2014
I just checked out a thread in another Islamic forum where two members actually made hijrah to join ISIS army(!) and shared their stories. There's something fishy about this group. They adheres to ideology of Muhammad ibn Abdul Wahab. One member told how day to day he and ISIS only fought Jabhat Nusra rebels (whom they refer as "Jabhat Kufriya"), while didn't give a darn to Assad. And it is said that Al Baghdadi guy added "Al Qurashi" to his name despite that he's no Quraish descendants at all, just so he matched the profile of ameerul mu'mineen.

ISIS too, seems to have no legitimate ulema to aid their decision making and the ulemas supporting them are either takfiris or unknown "scholars", but Allahu a'lam. The supporters (not the said ISIS members, though) keep on saying that ISIS needs no ulema because "the past ummah i.e. Jews and Christians made their priests and rabbis their Lords/ worshiped their scholars".

And when they were argued "why ISIS not fighting Israel first", one ISIS on the forum member said that our (their) task is to "kill murtadeen first" and fighting Israel is not so much priority, "after all, according to hadith Palestine will be the last land being liberated".

Wallahi I just can't stand the ISIS fanboys who throw takfir and "khawarij" to anyone who questioned the legitimacy of their "khilafah". I believe if true Khilafah return it will be by some ahlus sunnah wal jamaah people not extreme Wahhabi nor Takfiri.
Blogger's Reply:
I don't know the group or the leader personally so can't comment...
slave of Allah wrote on 8 Jul 2014

MashAllah very good analysis. But what is the solution.?? This shia vs sunni war is and was inevitable. The amount of zulm the kaafir rawaafidh did its only natural for an extremist sunni group to emerge. I cant support and justify what isis do ( if what media reports are true) but at same time I can see why they are doing it. I don't want to sound like im bashing ulema but they are to blame too. There are lack of ulema out their in jihad teaching the mujaahideen the rules and sunnah of jihad so obviously you will get jahils causing fitnah.

May Allah keep the Muslims safe. Ameej
Anonymous wrote on 13 Jul 2014
Solution education, education , education removing ignorance of deen. Muslims in the west have particular responsibility to educate masses inviting them back to teachings of Quran and practice of Nabi SWS.
Abdullah Fariduddin Al Bukhari wrote on 11 Aug 2014
Jazakallah for such a good analysis. Your prediction around Sunni vs Shia civil war has long been shouted from darkness by respected Sheikh Imran Hussain. Someone asked for the solution here. It is my personal humble (non academic) opinion which is to supplement solution offered by the blogger is Tabligh for the adults followed by acquiring of Ilmi Shariah and education, education and education of children, womanfolks and the rest too. Allah knows best.
SarahJ wrote on 27 Aug 2014
This is a fairly sound analysis. But in a world dictated by US and Israel supremacy, nothing should be seen as pure coincidence. The role of ISIS is to create chaos and theological instability in the region. Muslims will fight Muslims and there will be disillusionment within the religion of Islam. ISIS has no interest in Israel, cause that's probably where its funding is coming from. But once chaos is rampant both Israel and the US will move in under the guise of creating order, to encroach more of Arab lands. ISIS's treatment of prisoners is proof their creed is deviant and not of the Sunnah of Rasool. ISIS has promised to march on Mecca and Madina. Now what kind of Islam is this? Ain't these lands supposed to be sacred, no bloodshed not even the uprooting of trees are allowed. Are these Muslims who don't follow their own faith? Al Qaeda, Osama ben Laden were created and financed by US. ISIS is no different. Bush promised to bring democracy to these lands. It started with the invasion of Iraq, the Arab spring where Qaddafi was killed in cold blood, Mubarak removed by a violent uprising-it has moved to Syria but Assad has turned out to a formidable opponent.Iran is next. The only way to get Iran sucked into the conflict is to use it as an Ally first in the so-called fight against ISIS. The West can't directly take down their allies in the Gulf. It can only do that through ISIS. Once ISIS moves towards Saudi Arabia, the West will offer greater "support" and "protection" and the New Order of doing things. The US and Israel will have total control of the whole region and its resources. The time of Dajjal is what all this is leading to.
they are Khawarij wrote on 10 Sep 2014
Ibn Kathir said, “If the Kharijites ever gained power, they would corrupt the entire land, Iraq and Syria. They would not leave a boy or a girl or a man or a woman, for in their view the people have become so corrupt that they cannot be reformed except by mass killing.”

Source: Al-Bidayah wa Nihayah 10/584
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