Asslamo Allaikum Wa Rahmatullahi Wa Barakatuh,
Disclaimer: I am a humble Servant of Allah (SWT) who lacks much in knowledge and experience so what is written here is simply my analysis which is liable to error and everyone reading this has the right to disagree.
Of all the wars and conflicts of the past few decades, the 2003 invasion of Iraq is the most puzzling to understand and explain. It made no sense.
Neither the Iraqi regime nor Saddam Hussain had any involvement with Islam let alone political or Jihadist Islam! The connection between Saddam and Al-Qaeda was laughed off by majority of the world
Iraq had endured decades of economic sanctions and monitoring and it was barely sustaining itself let alone a threat to the west as advanced in the (now defunct) September dossier
So why attack Iraq? It made no sense until now...
World history tells us that whenever a people are invaded those who value their freedom rise up against the invasion and like clockwork this is what happened within a year or so after Iraq invasion. The people of Iraq rose up against the invasion of their country. The most experienced Jihadees in the world were from Aghanistan (legacy of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the ensuing Jihad there) and Muslims flooded into Iraq to fight the invasion.
So far so predictable until a new name enters the pages of history...
Jamāʻat al-Tawḥīd wa-al-Jihād:
Ahmad Fadeel al-Nazal al-Khalayleh (Abu Musab al-Zarqawi) was a young man who arrived in Afghanistan around 1989 right at the end of Soviet Jihad. He saw little to no action and instead befriended Usama Bin Ladin. There wasn’t a lot of fighting so he started writing and returned to his homeland (Jordan) in 1990 and was arrested shortly thereafter and imprisoned for many years. Zarqawi was an extreme Salafi and at some point formed a group called "Jamāʻat al-Tawḥīd wa-al-Jihād" .
Al-Qaeda in Iraq:
Around 2004 (Abu Musab al-Zarqawi) made Ba'yah to Usama Bin Ladin and the name of the group changed to Tanẓīm Qāʻidat al-Jihād fī Bilād al-Rāfidayn, "The Organization of Jihad's Base in the Country of the Two Rivers" (TQJBR), more commonly translated as "Al-Qaeda in Iraq" (AQI). Under (Abu Musab al-Zarqawi) started an all assault on Iraq included suicide bombings in which many civilian (Shias) were killed and this began to strengthen the seeds of sectarianism in Iraq.
IF this letter is fake THEN we can clearly see invisible hands planting the idea that attacks on civilian population (majority Shia in and around Capital Baghdad) are occurring.
IF this letter is real THEN we see Jihad against invaders being morphed into sectarian violence
Whether we take it as fake or real is Academic as it begins to show telltale signs of emerging Shia/Sunni conflict in Iraq.
Political sidelining of Sunnis in Iraq:
Americans setup Iraqi Transitional Government in 2005 and it was headed up several individuals with little to no Senior level representation from Sunnees of Iraq. The key individuals were:
- Jalal Talabani who is a Kurd who are a minority in Iraq made President
- (Dr) Ibrahim al-Jaafari who is a Shia made the Prime Minister
- Adil Abdul-Mahdi another very powerful (Iran backed Shia) made Vice-President
- Ghazi Mashal Ajil al-Yawer (Token Sunni) who didn't live in Iraq but actually had to be brought into Iraq and made Vice-President, He was so infective and powerless "al Baqara al dhahika (the laughing cow)".
Effectively, there was no Sunni representation in a country which has a 40% Sunni population and even higher if you count the Kurds (who are predominantly Sunni) but by clever distribution Kurds are counted as a separate group!
Like any other 3rd world country, assignments and appointments were based on nepotism and clear favouritism. Shias (and Kurds) rose while the Sunnees were sidelined under the pretext that most Sunnees were bathists (loyal to Saddam Hussain).
As “insurgency” against American invasion grew many civilian casualties were Shias who represented many aspects of the Government and resentment grew.
The transitional Government morphed into Iraqi National Assembly and then Iraqi Government but the demographics representing Iraq didn’t alter much. This time the leader on top was replaced by Nouri al-Maliki who still rules.
Almost a decade of Shia rule in Iraq and resulted in sharp rise in sectarianism, due to many common factors but primarily due to:
Sunni sidelining and underrepresentation in jobs and economy.
The Iraqi army (Saddam loyalties) were disbanded and a new force created to fight counterinsurgency and it overrepresented Shia, therefore just considering sheer numbers there was a high number of Shia casualties at the hands of (largely Sunni) resistance.
Shia/Sunni tensions fuelled by Syrian conflict:
There is no doubt and needs no further explanations that the brutal (mass murder and genocide) of Sunnees by heretical (Shia) Alawees further stoked sectarian tensions (worldwide).
Sunni Jihadi conflict in Syria:
There is no denying that there was/is significant tension between various (Sunni) Jihadi groups fighting the Alawi regime in Syria. Some reports go as far as to claim that majority of Jihadi casualties in Syria are due to inter-fighting and Allah (SWT) knows best!
Again analysis of contemporary media shows that various groups jockeying for power and control. We first see this in the Media when Islamic state of Iraq announce that Al-Nusra Front or Jabhat al-Nusra is part of them!
Islamic state of Iraq rejects offers for reconciliation and orders publicly.
News of infighting, splits, attacks on each other continued to filter in the Media.
ISIS (ISIL) and their lightening success in Iraq:
In the 2 months we heard about this group crossing the border into Iraq and capturing large areas of land with blistering speed and success. This group supposedly had a few thousand fighters and the population of Mosul itself is 1.8 million.
We are told that 2-3 divisions of Iraqi Army (30-40,000) Soldiers surrendered to less than 2000 insurgents.
It is not possible for a few thousand men to capture such large areas of land without local support. The only plausible explanation is Sunni disenchantment with (ruling) Shias which made them turn in great numbers to an incoming “Sunni” military force.
ISIS has a reputation for being brutal and their spectacular advance in Iraq and rule over areas straddling the Syria/Iraq border has clearly alarmed the Shias. As if by sheer coincidence the person who proclaiming to be Khilafah of Islam happens to be also called “Abu Bakr”.
What I have stated is clearly obvious that this will do nothing but stoke serious tensions between Shias and Sunnees worldwide and it most certainly DOES NOT benefit Islam or Muslims in anyway whatsoever.
You can read and listen to people on the Internet who claim that this conflict is by design, orchestrated and “peace” will be delivered from the ashes of conflict.
I don’t know if this is a precursor to coming of Mahdi (AS) as claimed by both Sunnees and Shias but it most certainly doesn’t benefit Sunni Islam at all. If ISIS (or whatever they are called now) are driven out the Sunni population will be subject to harassment, intimidation and targeted for decades.
I don’t know if these things were “designed” or just happened but its most certainly a deadly cocktail of ensuing violence and bloodshed. All of a sudden the world happens to forget about “Syrian Government and its atrocities” and we have a new “bogeyman” in town...Bashar Al-Asaad is no longer the “baddie” instead we have a new “baddie”!
To me this whole thing appears to be a HUGE VORTEX ready to suck in thousands of Shias and Sunnees!
Is this Khilafah legitimate or should you be doing Bay’ah to the new Ameer?
Allah (SWT) knows best about the future but this declaration of Khilafah has certainly excited many in the Sunni world so how legitimate is this claim?
To them I say that this group and its leadership isn’t even accepted by those who fought with them in Iraq (Al-Qaeda) or Syria (Al-Nusraet al), how in the world does it want allegiance from millions of Sunnees around the world who have neither heard of them nor come in any contact?
Achievements so far?
Raising Shia/Sunni sectarianism to dangerous levels
Further weakening and division of Muslims
Confining “Syrian atrocities” to the background
Coming of Iran from the cold
Creating confusion, cheapening and mocking of Khilafah (worldwide)
The world was at least beginning to “empathise” with the uprising in Syria but with the advent of ISIS the threat of radicalisation has been placed on the forefront (once more) and for an average global citizen it has been declared that there is no such thing as “Good Muslim Resistance!”
What the future may hold?
All of these scenarios are equally unpalatable:
Large areas under ISIS will be liberated and local population (Sunnees) will have to pay for their crimes
Iraq (and by extension) Middle-East will be embroiled in sectarian conflict between (Irani backed) Shias and Sunnees for decades
Israel will enter the conflict and its influence will extend to the heart of Iraq
US will re-enter Iraq