ALIF wrote:
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Maripat, how do we know it is not all part of the ‘mediation process’ the Modi suggested to Trump, and to which IK agreed ?
From the circumstantial evidence I doubt it.
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Every one knows the military solution to the issue of Kashmir is difficult, if not impossible. Pakistani soldiers are not Sahaba, and they have tried 2-3 times to snatch Kashmir from India by force, and failed. The same goes for India, they can not occupy Pakistani held Kashmir by force...
As an Indian it is not possible for me to opine on this angle.
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What, if some “wise†people on both sides, decided to ‘resolve’ the issue (against the will of Kashmiri people) by accepting LOC as international border, and live peacefully from there onward ?
Though Shah-Modi duo do not spell it but their current move is consistent with this scenario.
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Please consider a few points :
• No apparent military solution to the issue, specially now, when both countries are armed with nuclear weapons , and foolish enough to use them, with all its consequences...
• No apparent military solution to the issue, specially now, when both countries are armed with nuclear weapons , and foolish enough to use them, with all its consequences...
At the moment one can say that India has implemented the very same solution because they had their military in place, sent 38000 additional troops, locked up Kashmiris in curfew and bulldozed the houses of Parliament owing to their majority in Lok Sabha and de facto majority in Raj Sabha.
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• Huge sums of money spent on defence, both on Indian side and Pakistani side, which could be used for economic uplift of both countries.
It is true but in the present moment of crisis this angle is not relevant.
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•Kashmir issue has created such a hostile environment between the two countries that practically India and Pakistan have no trade relations with each other while both can be very good trading partners.
Kashmir issue can not be singled out. Partition came with all the acrimony between India and Pakistan.
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• Those who count in Pakistan, knows fully well that the current movement in Kashmir is NOT for annexation with Pakistan BUT for an ‘independent’ state of Kashmir...and, that independent Kashmir have a historical claim on GILGAT-BALTISTAN. In such an eventuality India will loss its part of Kashmir but Pakistan will also loss not only Azad Kashmir but Gilgat Baltistan as well. India itself may fight the case of Kashmiri claim on Gilgat on international stage, and so will others....
(I am all for the people of Kashmir. If they want an independent state, so be it, if they can prove their claim on Gilgat baltistan, let Gilgat be theirs....but I don’t know about the mind of Pakistani establishment.)
(I am all for the people of Kashmir. If they want an independent state, so be it, if they can prove their claim on Gilgat baltistan, let Gilgat be theirs....but I don’t know about the mind of Pakistani establishment.)
It is upto the Kashmiris to take a stand whether the issue is about Kashmiriyat or Islam. And this has implications that can be discussed.
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• Modi May not want to be in politics after his second term, same goes for Imran Khan.Both May not care about the negative political repercussions of accepting LOC as permanent border. Obviously hawks in both the countries would not accept such a solution and at least in Pakistan it will be considered betraying the country...only those can take such a risky position who do not anticipate a long political career.
I am sorry I am not interested in this issue because of Modi or Imran Khan. My interest is that Kashmir staying in India would increase percentage of Muslims in India. For that to happen I am not with those in India for whom Kashmir is an integral part of India without Kashmiris.
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Keeping all the above in mind, it looks ‘possible’ that despite all the public posturing ,the move might may be part of the ‘mediation process’.
At the ground level the Saffron powers that hold sway over whole of India today have solved the Kashmir problem in favour of India without taking the Kashmiris into confidence.
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In the end,I may be totally wrong and no such thing might be under consideration,in which case, we will have to try and find out how can ‘anybody’ mediate in Kashmir. The options are very limited :
1) India leaves Kashmir after a free and fair plebiscite under United Nations, and hand it over to Pakistan. Why would they do it ?
1) India leaves Kashmir after a free and fair plebiscite under United Nations, and hand it over to Pakistan. Why would they do it ?
This does not look like a possibility at the moment.
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2)Pakistan conquers Kashmir, they would have loved to do it if they could...
At the moment power balance is not in its favour.
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3) India convincingly defeats Pakistan and take Pakistani part of Kashmir. Again wishful thinking for Indians if they think so...
The fact remains that India controls more of Kashmir than Pakistan and India has annexed it by force.
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4) A long and bloody struggle for Kashmiri people to win an independent state of their own. It is neither in the interest of India nor Pakistan, as pointed out earlier
A long struggle has been on for exactly thirty years by now in Kashmir and about a hundred thousand Muslims of Kashmir have sacrificed their lives and half of India army is engaged in that spot.
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5) keep the status co and keep fighting. Very foolish thing to do indeed...
The status quo so far has been changed by the recent move.
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As @sipraomere say, some ‘wise’ people may have decided to find a solution to this problem.
By wise guys he perhaps meant the seniors of MS like me. Muaz Khan has spoken. My opinion is included above. Implementation of any idea is an open question.
At the moment the Hindus have united in an unprecedented manner and any new status created by them can not be of permanent nature because that unity in India can not be permanent and the Muslim world is unlikely to accept their solution passively, at least in the long run.
This is all that is coming to my mind at the moment.